← PTM Store Championship Card Merchant Ponsonby
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Store Championship Card Merchant Ponsonby.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 87.5% | 68.2% | 62.0% | 64.2% | 1491 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 30.0% | 8 | 62.5% | 44.2% | 55.6% | 49.8% | 1524 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Allies | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 63.8% | 54.0% | 54.4% | 1412 | — |
| 4 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 37.5% | 44.1% | 51.4% | 52.0% | 1315 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 61.9% | 48.6% | 54.2% | 1217 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 45.6% | 43.3% | 48.4% | 1271 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 20.0% | 6 | 16.7% | 30.1% | 40.0% | 41.2% | 1396 | — |