Fire Crux MageTier 1
at PTM Store Championships
decks
2
(6.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
8-2-1
overall winrate
77.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
66.2%
avg ELO +7.1 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1368
· median 1368
· range 1367–1369
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1098
Q1 1153
Q3 1335
1493
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Fire Exia | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.9% | +6.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Neos | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Fire Suited | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
