Fire ExiaTier 2
at PTM Store Championships
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Water Astra Diana | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annihilation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |