Fire AggroTier 2
at PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 19.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
| Water Fractal | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molten Echo | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memorite Vassal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flickering Afterglow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mote Sear | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |