Water AetherwingTier 1
at PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Water Fractal | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refreshing Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Charge the Soul | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mana's Cascade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |