← Grand Archive - Phantom Monarchs - Store Championship!
Fire NeosTier 2
at Grand Archive - Phantom Monarchs - Store Championship!
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.7%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1205
· median 1205
· range 1205–1205
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1072
Q1 1232
Q3 1369
1502
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 20.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.3% | +23.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Wind Cats | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
