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Water FractalTier 1
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 19.4% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 55.2% | +3.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.2% | +9.8 |
| Water Genbu | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 49.2% | -0.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.1 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.1% | +7.5 |
| Water Neos | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Water Seiryuu | 3.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.1% | +7.5 |
| Wind Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |