← Cards Central PTM Store Champ BO3
Water NeosTier 2
at Cards Central PTM Store Champ BO3
decks
1
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-2-2
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.3%
avg ELO -1.5 per match
expected value
47.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1208
· median 1208
· range 1208–1208
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1142
Q1 1212
Q3 1350
1525
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 19.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Water Fractal | 12.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
