Water FractalTier 2
at RHS PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.9%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
45.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1192
· median 1192
· range 1090–1293
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1090
Q1 1181
Q3 1374
1499
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Fire Arcane Rai | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
