EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at AJITO SC.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 100.0% | 62.1% | 62.7% | 56.1% | 1560 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 80.0% | 68.8% | 58.7% | 59.9% | 1310 | — |
| 3 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 70.0% | 59.1% | 54.0% | 53.3% | 1191 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 14.3% | 10 | 55.0% | 43.8% | 51.9% | 48.2% | 1504 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 45.7% | 50.0% | 48.5% | 1237 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 53.1% | 50.0% | 50.3% | 1455 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 39.0% | 48.0% | 46.0% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 58.6% | 48.0% | 53.1% | 1145 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 7.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 50.0% | 46.7% | 50.0% | 1246 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.4% | 46.7% | 47.4% | 1253 | — |
| 11 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.4% | 45.3% | 49.6% | 1233 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Exia Jin | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 10.0% | 42.2% | 43.3% | 48.6% | 1069 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 7.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 28.5% | 40.0% | 41.4% | 1372 | ↑ top |