Water AetherwingTier 2
at 美樂地 GA店家冠軍賽20260131
decks
3
(13.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
3-9-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.4%
avg ELO -3.7 per match
expected value
40.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1216
· median 1247
· range 1125–1276
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1118
Q1 1218
Q3 1372
1591
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +2.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.2% | -16.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
