← Store Championship PTM @gamestimetorino
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Store Championship PTM @gamestimetorino
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.8% | +15.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Positioning | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mana's Cascade | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 |