← Store Championship (March 8th)
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship (March 8th).
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 100.0% | 73.7% | 63.3% | 62.4% | 1388 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Nico | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 45.5% | 55.0% | 48.2% | 1479 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Luxem Assassin | 2 | 15.4% | 6 | 58.3% | 50.2% | 52.7% | 50.7% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 56.0% | 52.0% | 49.7% | 1451 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 7.7% | 2 | 50.0% | 40.6% | 50.0% | 44.3% | 1507 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.8% | 50.0% | 49.9% | 1231 | — |
| 7 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 54.2% | 46.7% | 52.0% | 1087 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Umbra Tristan | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 42.2% | 46.7% | 46.3% | 1285 | — |
| 9 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 37.5% | 40.3% | 46.0% | 45.2% | 1237 | — |
| 10 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 37.5% | 61.3% | 46.0% | 53.2% | 1001 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 16.7% | 43.6% | 45.0% | 48.6% | 1226 | — |
| 12 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 37.4% | 40.0% | 44.1% | 1031 | ↓ low |