← Heretics Haven - PTM Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Heretics Haven - PTM Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Aetherwing 1 10.0% 5 80.0% 66.3% 60.8% 60.2% 1342 ↑ top
2 Horse and Taxes 1 10.0% 5 80.0% 57.9% 57.5% 53.7% 1338 ↑ top
3 Water Fractal 2 20.0% 5 50.0% 48.3% 50.8% 50.0% 1271
4 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 10.0% 3 50.0% 48.8% 50.0% 49.2% 1332 ↑ top
5 Wind Astra Cleric 1 10.0% 4 50.0% 50.8% 50.0% 50.3% 1237
6 Fire Suited 1 10.0% 3 33.3% 41.9% 46.7% 46.2% 1217
7 Fire Suzaku 1 10.0% 3 33.3% 50.2% 45.0% 48.6% 1137 ↓ low
8 Wind Luxem Zander 1 10.0% 3 16.7% 42.0% 43.3% 46.3% 1075 ↓ low
9 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 10.0% 3 16.7% 37.0% 42.5% 43.6% 1147 ↓ low