← Heretics Haven - PTM Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Heretics Haven - PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 80.0% | 66.3% | 60.8% | 60.2% | 1342 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 80.0% | 57.9% | 57.5% | 53.7% | 1338 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 2 | 20.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 48.3% | 50.8% | 50.0% | 1271 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 50.0% | 48.8% | 50.0% | 49.2% | 1332 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.8% | 50.0% | 50.3% | 1237 | — |
| 6 | Fire Suited | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 41.9% | 46.7% | 46.2% | 1217 | — |
| 7 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 50.2% | 45.0% | 48.6% | 1137 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 16.7% | 42.0% | 43.3% | 46.3% | 1075 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 16.7% | 37.0% | 42.5% | 43.6% | 1147 | ↓ low |