← Mox Valley Games PTM Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mox Valley Games PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 25.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.0% | 53.3% | 1329 | — |
| 2 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 50.0% | 44.6% | 52.5% | 49.5% | 1309 | — |
| 3 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 50.0% | 58.7% | 50.0% | 54.1% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 57.9% | 50.0% | 51.7% | 1253 | — |
| 5 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 33.6% | 45.0% | 41.7% | 1436 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.0% | 45.0% | 48.5% | 1308 | — |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 12.5% | 1 | 0.0% | 45.4% | 40.0% | 45.4% | 1051 | ↓ low |