← [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 2/5/2026
Water AetherwingTier 1
at [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 2/5/2026
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.7 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prudent Nock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mana's Cascade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |