← [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 2/5/2026
Water Umbra AliceTier 2
at [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 2/5/2026
decks
1
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.5%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
46.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1170
· median 1170
· range 1170–1170
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1218
Q3 1428
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.4 |
| Water Astra Diana | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Zander | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
