EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Fox Den Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 87.5% | 60.8% | 58.0% | 54.8% | 1382 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Chess | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 62.5% | 55.4% | 54.0% | 53.4% | 1294 | — |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 62.5% | 63.0% | 52.5% | 56.1% | 1102 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 54.4% | 50.0% | 51.7% | 1241 | — |
| 5 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 50.0% | 43.6% | 50.0% | 47.0% | 1359 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 22.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 46.3% | 48.0% | 48.5% | 1276 | — |
| 7 | Wind Exia | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 40.8% | 45.0% | 43.8% | 1415 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 33.2% | 40.0% | 42.2% | 1163 | ↓ low |