EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Game Nut Store Champ.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 53.4% | 56.7% | 54.8% | 1225 | — |
| 2 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 80.0% | 63.0% | 55.0% | 53.4% | 1294 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.4% | 52.0% | 50.5% | 1322 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Byakko | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 37.5% | 48.9% | 51.7% | 53.2% | 1146 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 51.2% | 51.7% | 49.5% | 1339 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.8% | 50.0% | 50.7% | 1278 | — |
| 7 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 43.6% | 48.3% | 47.7% | 1210 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.9% | 48.0% | 49.8% | 1116 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 30.0% | 13 | 38.5% | 44.0% | 45.6% | 46.9% | 1227 | — |