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Water FractalTier 2
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 20.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 40.6% | -6.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 12.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.7% | -13.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.6% | -14.5 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Converge Reflections | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |