← Card Caster Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Card Caster Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 60.7% | 55.0% | 55.9% | 1262 | — |
| 2 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 49.2% | 55.0% | 51.3% | 1369 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 41.7% | 55.0% | 47.7% | 1420 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 83.3% | 63.9% | 55.0% | 54.5% | 1269 | — |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 50.0% | 45.2% | 47.8% | 44.9% | 1218 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 25.0% | 6 | 33.3% | 48.6% | 45.7% | 49.0% | 1243 | — |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 41.3% | 40.0% | 45.9% | 1144 | ↓ low |