← Card Merchant Hamilton Phantom Monarchs Store Championships
Water FractalTier 2
at Card Merchant Hamilton Phantom Monarchs Store Championships
decks
1
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.5%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
48.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1349
· median 1349
· range 1349–1349
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1100
Q1 1189
Q3 1372
1546
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 20.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 13.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.8% | -16.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Fire Suited | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
