← Card Merchant Hamilton Phantom Monarchs Store Championships
Water Luxem AssassinTier 2
at Card Merchant Hamilton Phantom Monarchs Store Championships
decks
1
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.5%
avg ELO -4.1 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1427
· median 1427
· range 1427–1427
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1100
Q1 1189
Q3 1372
1546
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 20.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.8% | -17.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Luxem Assassin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
