← Ultra Comix Store Championship
Water Crux MageTier 1
at Ultra Comix Store Championship
decks
1
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.9%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1302
· median 1302
· range 1302–1302
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1139
Q1 1177
Q3 1302
1543
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 22.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 22.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.5% | +2.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.7% | -21.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
