← Ultra Comix Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at Ultra Comix Store Championship
decks
2
(22.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-4-1
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.0%
avg ELO +3.1 per match
expected value
54.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1249
· median 1249
· range 1141–1357
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1139
Q1 1177
Q3 1302
1543
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 22.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.0% | +12.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 11.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.5% | -2.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.9% | -5.8 |
