Fire Umbra AliceTier 2
at Store Championship
decks
2
(22.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.9%
avg ELO -8.1 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1199
· median 1199
· range 1136–1263
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1136
Q1 1187
Q3 1265
1567
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawn of Ashes | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Water Genbu | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Alice decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
