EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship GA.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 25.0% | 6 | 75.0% | 63.9% | 56.2% | 55.7% | 1264 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.8% | 54.0% | 55.0% | 1212 | — |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 53.3% | 49.3% | 48.6% | 1252 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 50.0% | 47.1% | 48.3% | 46.9% | 1244 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 43.8% | 45.0% | 45.8% | 1217 | — |
| 6 | Slimes | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 16.7% | 38.5% | 43.3% | 44.6% | 1167 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Crux Merlin | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 16.7% | 37.1% | 43.3% | 44.0% | 1163 | ↓ low |