← Store championship @ Trinity

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store championship @ Trinity. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Shadowstrike 1 12.5% 5 100.0% 66.0% 60.0% 55.8% 1382 ↑ top
2 Water Fractal 1 12.5% 5 60.0% 47.7% 52.5% 49.2% 1327 ↑ top
3 Water Chess 1 12.5% 4 50.0% 50.5% 50.0% 50.2% 1173
4 Water Ravishing Mill 1 12.5% 4 50.0% 53.0% 50.0% 51.3% 1222
5 Fire Aetherwing 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 50.0% 46.7% 50.0% 1127 ↓ low
6 Fire Slimes 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 48.8% 46.7% 49.4% 1067 ↓ low
7 Fire Suzaku 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 47.7% 46.7% 48.9% 1127 ↓ low
8 Fire Crux Assassin 1 12.5% 3 0.0% 31.9% 40.0% 41.6% 1091 ↓ low