← Store championship @ Trinity
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store championship @ Trinity.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 100.0% | 66.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | 1382 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 47.7% | 52.5% | 49.2% | 1327 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Chess | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.5% | 50.0% | 50.2% | 1173 | — |
| 4 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 50.0% | 53.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | 1222 | — |
| 5 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 50.0% | 46.7% | 50.0% | 1127 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.8% | 46.7% | 49.4% | 1067 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 47.7% | 46.7% | 48.9% | 1127 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Crux Assassin | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 31.9% | 40.0% | 41.6% | 1091 | ↓ low |