← Beginner's Luck Phantom Monarch
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Beginner's Luck Phantom Monarch
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.9%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1235
· median 1235
· range 1235–1235
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1135
Q1 1227
Q3 1388
1460
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 23.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
