← Beginner's Luck Phantom Monarch
Water FractalTier 1
at Beginner's Luck Phantom Monarch
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.7% | +9.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alice, Golden Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |