Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Gold Star PTM Store Champs
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.9%
avg ELO -6.4 per match
expected value
45.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1385
· median 1385
· range 1385–1385
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
996
Q1 1307
Q3 1428
1471
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 16.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.3% | -7.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
