← Grand Archive - Store Championship - 28/02/26
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive - Store Championship - 28/02/26.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 90.0% | 58.3% | 59.6% | 52.2% | 1546 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 70.0% | 65.2% | 56.2% | 57.4% | 1459 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 2 | 8.3% | 10 | 65.0% | 48.3% | 54.6% | 49.1% | 1450 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 12.5% | 12 | 66.7% | 64.8% | 53.3% | 55.6% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | 51.0% | 1429 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 4 | 16.7% | 17 | 52.9% | 59.3% | 51.8% | 53.4% | 1266 | — |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 12.5% | 15 | 53.3% | 44.3% | 49.6% | 47.2% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.2% | 48.9% | 47.2% | 1431 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.2% | 46.0% | 47.5% | 1205 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.3% | 45.0% | 46.6% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Suited | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 42.0% | 45.0% | 48.0% | 1083 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Tera Silvie | 1 | 4.2% | 3 | 33.3% | 50.0% | 44.0% | 48.9% | 1123 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 4.2% | 3 | 16.7% | 39.8% | 43.3% | 44.3% | 1214 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 42.2% | 42.2% | 42.3% | 1257 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 8.3% | 10 | 20.0% | 34.6% | 41.1% | 44.6% | 1184 | ↓ low |