← Reaper Game Store - Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Reaper Game Store - Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Aetherwing 3 12.5% 15 66.7% 52.2% 54.3% 51.0% 1390 ↑ top
2 Wind Seiryuu 3 12.5% 13 69.2% 63.8% 53.6% 53.5% 1401 ↑ top
3 Fire Oblation 1 4.2% 6 50.0% 47.5% 53.3% 52.0% 1339
4 Slimes 1 4.2% 5 50.0% 41.9% 53.3% 50.0% 1349
5 Wind Shadowstrike 2 8.3% 10 60.0% 60.0% 53.3% 53.7% 1214 ↓ low
6 Wind Arcane 1 4.2% 6 66.7% 45.4% 52.3% 48.1% 1607 ↑ top
7 Wind Luxem Zander 1 4.2% 6 66.7% 64.8% 52.3% 55.5% 1307
8 Water Fractal 1 4.2% 5 60.0% 59.4% 48.1% 50.6% 1327
9 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 4.2% 5 40.0% 40.4% 46.7% 44.9% 1212 ↓ low
10 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 4.2% 4 50.0% 48.9% 46.7% 46.7% 1278 ↓ low
11 Fire Crux Mage 2 8.3% 9 38.9% 43.7% 46.3% 47.1% 1263 ↓ low
12 Fire Umbra Alice 1 4.2% 4 25.0% 46.8% 45.7% 48.8% 1231 ↓ low
13 Water Ravishing Mill 2 8.3% 9 38.9% 51.9% 45.4% 49.0% 1360
14 Fire Suited 1 4.2% 5 40.0% 46.3% 45.0% 46.8% 1408 ↑ top
15 Fire Aetherwing 1 4.2% 5 40.0% 51.1% 43.8% 47.5% 1200 ↓ low
16 Wind Cats 1 4.2% 4 25.0% 43.3% 42.9% 45.8% 1258 ↓ low
17 Wind Arisanna 1 4.2% 4 12.5% 34.7% 42.5% 43.9% 1267 ↓ low
18 Wind Byakko 1 4.2% 3 0.0% 31.5% 40.0% 41.4% 1338