← Hard Brick Games Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at Hard Brick Games Store Championship
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-3-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.7%
avg ELO +2.9 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1206
· median 1206
· range 1206–1206
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1096
Q1 1209
Q3 1268
1414
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
