Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.1%
avg ELO -5.0 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1412
· median 1412
· range 1412–1412
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1102
Q1 1257
Q3 1430
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -3.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Chess | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
