← Stadium PTM Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Stadium PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 100.0% | 86.3% | 63.3% | 69.4% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 20.0% | 8 | 62.5% | 49.8% | 53.9% | 50.7% | 1363 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 62.5% | 48.8% | 52.5% | 49.5% | 1348 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 42.5% | 50.0% | 46.7% | 1352 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 46.6% | 48.0% | 47.2% | 1330 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 37.5% | 48.4% | 47.5% | 49.3% | 1179 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Fractal | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 37.5% | 46.7% | 46.0% | 47.5% | 1242 | — |
| 8 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.6% | 44.0% | 46.0% | 1171 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 12.5% | 40.4% | 42.0% | 45.7% | 1175 | ↓ low |