← PTM Store Championship feb 28th
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Store Championship feb 28th.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 87.5% | 59.2% | 57.5% | 53.7% | 1576 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 62.5% | 54.5% | 52.5% | 51.8% | 1480 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 62.5% | 47.3% | 52.5% | 48.9% | 1415 | — |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 62.5% | 59.4% | 52.5% | 53.8% | 1167 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 62.5% | 50.4% | 52.5% | 50.2% | 1436 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 62.5% | 58.9% | 52.5% | 53.6% | 1423 | — |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 62.5% | 60.6% | 52.5% | 54.2% | 1353 | — |
| 8 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 44.9% | 47.5% | 47.9% | 1344 | — |
| 9 | Water Allies | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 36.0% | 47.5% | 44.4% | 1549 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 42.5% | 47.5% | 47.0% | 1390 | — |
| 11 | Fire Overlord | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 12.5% | 43.9% | 42.5% | 47.6% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 12.5% | 42.3% | 42.5% | 46.9% | 1153 | ↓ low |