← Saturday Phantom Monarchs Store Champs
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Saturday Phantom Monarchs Store Champs
decks
2
(18.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.2%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
51.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1374
· median 1374
· range 1340–1408
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1236
Q3 1392
1408
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.6% | -10.0 |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +7.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.1% | -6.7 |
| Water Slimes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
