← Grand Archive TCG Store Championship Event

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive TCG Store Championship Event. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Seiryuu 3 33.3% 9 61.1% 50.3% 54.0% 50.3% 1350 ↑ top
2 Wind Shadowstrike 2 22.2% 7 64.3% 54.7% 54.0% 52.6% 1330 ↑ top
3 Fire Crux Mage 1 11.1% 3 66.7% 59.5% 52.5% 55.4% 1203
4 Wind Astra Cleric 1 11.1% 3 33.3% 51.0% 43.3% 49.2% 1120 ↓ low
5 Water Ravishing Mill 1 11.1% 2 0.0% 41.5% 40.0% 45.1% 941 ↓ low
6 Wind Razorgale 1 11.1% 2 0.0% 37.0% 40.0% 42.1% 1098 ↓ low