← [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 3/5/2026
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 3/5/2026
decks
4
(12.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-5-0
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.6%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
51.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1384
· median 1359
· range 1259–1560
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1215
Q3 1415
1560
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 9.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 49.9% | -0.0 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.8% | -0.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
