← [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 3/5/2026
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 3/5/2026
decks
2
(6.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
2-5-0
overall winrate
28.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.3%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
42.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1169
· median 1169
· range 1123–1215
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1215
Q3 1415
1560
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
