← [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 3/12/2026
Water FractalTier 2
at [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 3/12/2026
decks
2
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.0%
avg ELO -0.0 per match
expected value
46.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1219
· median 1219
· range 1179–1259
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1194
Q3 1415
1548
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 15.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.0% | +0.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
