← [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 3/19/2026

Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1

at [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 3/19/2026

decks
2 (8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6 6-0-0
overall winrate
100.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.8% avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
60.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1417 · median 1417 · range 1372–1463 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1029 Q1 1169 Q3 1303 1560
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Aetherwing 8.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.5% +0.8
Water Astra Ranger 8.7% 0
Fire Aetherwing 4.3% 0
Fire Arcane 4.3% 0
Fire Crux Mage 4.3% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 4.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.0% +0.0
Fire Slimes 4.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.5% +0.8
Fire Tera Diao Chan 4.3% 0
Fire Umbra Ciel 4.3% 0
Horse and Taxes 4.3% 0
Water Crux Assassin 4.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.0% +0.0
Water Fractal 4.3% 0
Water Genbu 4.3% 0
Water Slice & Dice 4.3% 0
Water Tristan 4.3% 0
Wind Alice 4.3% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 4.3% 0
Wind Byakko 4.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.0% +0.0
Wind Shadowstrike 4.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.7% +1.1
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand +1.00 1 0 0
Heavy Swing -1.00 0 1 0
Feu Awakening -1.00 0 1 0
Peaceful Reunion +1.00 1 0 0
Conflagrative Trounce -1.00 0 1 0
Heavenly Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Smoke Out -1.00 0 1 0
Rictus Tiding +1.00 1 0 0
Gentle Respite +1.00 1 0 0
Inert Sword +1.00 1 0 0
Stalwart Shieldmate -1.00 0 1 0
Fast Cure +1.00 1 0 0
Cremation Ritual -1.00 0 1 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Embrace Noir -1.00 0 1 0
Abnegation +1.00 1 0 0
Carter, Synthetic Reaper +1.00 1 0 0
Regal Inquisition +1.00 1 0 0
Library Witch -1.00 0 1 0
Topsy Decree +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit of Fire -1.00 0 1 0
Undeniable Truth -1.00 0 1 0
Flamme Sorcel +1.00 1 0 0
Devastating Blow +1.00 1 0 0
Overlapping Visages +1.00 1 0 0
Varuckan Acolyte -1.00 0 1 0
Grim Pastiche +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/47146/archetypes/Fire Umbra Guardian