← [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 3/19/2026
Water TristanTier 2
at [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 3/19/2026
decks
1
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
2
0-1-1
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1100
· median 1100
· range 1100–1100
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1169
Q3 1303
1560
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.5 |
| Water Genbu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tristan decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
