← [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 3/22/2026
Fire Umbra CielTier 1
at [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 3/22/2026
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
3-1-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.5%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
56.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1265
· median 1265
· range 1265–1265
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1147
Q1 1234
Q3 1439
1517
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Byakko | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
