EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at SC PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 2 | 11.8% | 10 | 80.0% | 59.6% | 57.8% | 53.8% | 1446 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 70.0% | 56.9% | 54.6% | 52.7% | 1431 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 11.8% | 10 | 65.0% | 54.8% | 54.0% | 51.7% | 1421 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 50.0% | 55.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | 1261 | — |
| 5 | Fire Oblation | 3 | 17.6% | 10 | 50.0% | 54.7% | 48.8% | 51.1% | 1234 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 50.0% | 50.7% | 48.3% | 49.2% | 1350 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 11.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.1% | 47.3% | 47.5% | 1228 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 35.7% | 46.2% | 45.2% | 1266 | — |
| 9 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 50.0% | 60.9% | 46.2% | 50.6% | 1198 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 12.5% | 27.2% | 42.0% | 41.0% | 1319 | — |
| 11 | Fire Allen | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 12.5% | 36.9% | 41.4% | 42.7% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 5.9% | 2 | 0.0% | 45.1% | 40.0% | 46.9% | 1185 | ↓ low |