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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
26.3%
avg ELO -13.7 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1340
· median 1340
· range 1340–1340
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1065
Q1 1205
Q3 1368
1453
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 20.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.1 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
