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Water Umbra AliceTier 2
at GAMERSSHOP STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
decks
1
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.2%
avg ELO -8.5 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1244
· median 1244
· range 1244–1244
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1217
Q3 1440
1642
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Water Chess | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
