← Grand Archive Store tournament
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive Store tournament.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 87.5% | 53.1% | 56.7% | 50.4% | 1394 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 62.5% | 44.6% | 54.7% | 48.5% | 1322 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 15.4% | 8 | 68.8% | 68.1% | 54.3% | 56.0% | 1202 | — |
| 4 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 62.5% | 60.9% | 52.5% | 54.4% | 1272 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 41.5% | 50.0% | 45.4% | 1323 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Genbu | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 62.5% | 45.5% | 50.0% | 45.9% | 1295 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 15.4% | 6 | 33.3% | 50.4% | 45.8% | 50.4% | 1144 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 52.5% | 45.0% | 49.5% | 1063 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Neos | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 51.5% | 45.0% | 50.6% | 1031 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 33.6% | 44.0% | 42.2% | 1158 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 16.7% | 37.9% | 44.0% | 45.5% | 1108 | ↓ low |