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EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Gameforce PTM Store Championships. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Seiryuu 2 20.0% 9 77.8% 54.5% 60.7% 53.2% 1507 ↑ top
2 Fire Aggro 1 10.0% 5 60.0% 62.8% 55.0% 58.7% 1364
3 Water Aetherwing 1 10.0% 3 50.0% 49.1% 50.0% 49.5% 1402
4 Wind Astra Cleric 1 10.0% 4 50.0% 56.0% 46.7% 50.9% 1281 ↓ low
5 Wind Shadowstrike 2 20.0% 5 40.0% 53.8% 46.7% 50.7% 1227 ↓ low
6 Water Crux Assassin 1 10.0% 3 16.7% 36.9% 45.0% 45.3% 1264 ↓ low
7 Water Luxem Assassin 1 10.0% 3 33.3% 49.2% 42.2% 46.4% 1418 ↑ top
8 Fire Oblation 1 10.0% 2 0.0% 24.6% 40.0% 34.2% 1464 ↑ top